Kingston – Cataraqui Conservation has extended the Flood Watch today due to elevated water levels in some areas and forecast for additional rainfall.
Weather Situation: Temperatures are expected to fluctuate near the freezing mark, above zero during the day and below zero at night. A combination of precipitation forms is forecast for March 28 to 31, including snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain. There is considerable uncertainty, but forecasts suggest a large portion of the expected precipitation, as much as 30 – 55 mm+, could fall as rain or freezing rain from March 28 – 31. Additional rainfall is possible from April 2 to 5.
Conditions: Runoff from the melting snowpack and rainfall events on March 16 and March 20 increased water levels and flows. Somewhat drier conditions since then have allowed conditions to improve. Streamflows peaked last week and have been falling, with many returning to the normal range.
In recent days, lake levels have peaked and have begun a steady decline. Some managed lakes remain well above normal, however.
The snowpack is gone, but the ground has limited ability to absorb rainfall, especially in areas where the soil is saturated and/or still partially frozen. This will lead to enhanced runoff to streams and lakes during rainfall events.
Risks: Though conditions have been improving, the forecasted rain is expected to cause streamflows to rise. Whether we see flows rise to those from a week ago, following the March 15 & 16 snowmelt and rainfall event, will be heavily dependent on rainfall amounts over the coming days.
Lake levels are also expected to rise. Water Managers have increased discharge (to maximum capacity from some water control structures) and continue to monitor levels closely to limit, as much as possible, negative impacts.
Widespread flooding is NOT expected. However, flooding of low-lying areas IS possible.
Specific locations where water levels are well above normal seasonal averages include*:
Cataraqui Watershed
Loughborough Lake (PP)
Buck Lake (PP)
Canoe Lake (PP)
Kingsford Lake (PP)
Devil Lake (PP)
Newboro Lake (PC)
Opinicon Lake (PC)
Sand Lake (PC)
Cranberry Lake (PC)
Dog Lake (PC)
Colonel By Lake (PC)
Gananoque River System
Upper Beverley Lake & Delta (MNR)
Lower Beverley Lake (MNR)
Singleton Lake (MNR)
Charleston Lake (PP)
Gananoque Lake (PP)
Gananoque River – the reach between Marble Rock Dam downstream to the 401 causeway (includes Marble Rock Road) – (PP)
*Connected lakes and watercourses, associated with the above list, may also be affected.
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