South Nation Conservation: Flood Watch

Finch – This is an update to the Flood Outlook released on March 4th, 2026. Warmer temperatures and rainfall over the weekend has led to increasing river levels, flooding of low-lying areas and unsafe conditions near waterways. Additional rainfall forecasted for March 10th into the 12th could lead to further flooding depending on the total amount of precipitation received.

Weather Forecast: Environment Canada is forecasting continued above-zero temperatures on March 9th and 10th, leading to additional snow melt across the SNC jurisdiction. Rainfall is expected to begin March 10th and continue through March 12th, with total precipitation amounts approaching 45 mm by March 12th.

The extended forecast shows a decline in temperatures after March 12th, with mostlybelow-zero temperatures for the following week, including some snow accumulation.

Environmental Conditions: Recent warm temperatures and rainfall over the weekend caused significant snowmelt and runoff across the watershed, increasing water levels and flows in local rivers and streams. River levels peaked early Monday morning in the headwaters and have since begun to gradually decline; however, levels remain elevated across the watershed and may rise again with additional rainfall and snowmelt expected later this week.

Snowpack remains in parts of the watershed, particularly in forested areas, and continued melting is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. Ground conditions are saturated, limiting infiltration and increasing runoff to waterways, with rivers and streams near capacity.

Ice remains in the main river systems, and rising flows could cause ice movement or breakup, increasing the risk of localized flooding.

Based on current forecasts, the SNC flood forecasting model indicates water levels could peak again around March 12th, potentially resulting in flooding in low-lying areas, floodplains, and areas with poor drainage.

Risks: Rivers throughout the jurisdiction currently have elevated water levels, fast-flowing water, and slippery or unstable banks, creating hazardous conditions near waterways. Remaining river ice also increases the potential for ice breakup and ice jam formation at bridges, culverts, and other channel constrictions.

The extent of flooding will depend largely on the amount and timing of rainfall over the coming days. Additional updates will be provided as forecasts become more certain.

ACTION: Residents in flood-prone or low-lying areas, historically susceptible to flooding, should take the necessary precautions to protect their property.

Please ensure:

• Sump pump is clear, in good working condition and has a backwater valve on it.
• Easy access to portable backup generator and pump.
• Downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 m from the dwelling.
• Driveway culverts are clear of debris and drain well.
• Securing items that might float away as flows increase.

Residents are advised to continue to exercise extreme caution near rivers and waterbodies due to increasing river flows and slippery conditions.Any ice-covered bodies of water are considered unsafe. Parents are encouraged to explain these dangers to their children.

Duration: This flood watch statement is in effect until March 11th, 2026 at 5 PM or until an update has been issued.

SNC monitors the water levels and weather forecasts as part of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program. Updates are provided as conditions change.

Please visit www.nation.on.ca for more information. To provide feedback with respect to changes in water related conditions please email waterwatch@nation.on.ca, post on our Facebook (/SouthNationConservation) or Twitter (@SouthNationCA).